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Iskra vs Lovćen — Second League 2019

Iskra
Iskra
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Lovćen
Lovćen
10/12/2025Second LeagueSecond League · Round 11Braca Velasevic Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Iskra41%
×Draw27%
Lovćen32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Iskra
1.33
Lovćen
1.13

Iskra creates 18% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 67 away

creates per match

Iskra
1.31
Lovćen
1.15

allows per match

Iskra
1.10
Lovćen
1.36

finishing

Iskra+0.00on par
Lovćen+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iskra ↓

Lovćen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Iskra or draw
68%
Iskra or Lovćen
73%
Draw or Lovćen
59%

Winning margin

Iskra wins by 2+
19%
Lovćen wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Iskra 1+ goals
74%
Iskra 2+ goals
38%
Iskra 3+ goals
15%
Lovćen 1+ goals
68%
Lovćen 2+ goals
31%
Lovćen 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Iskra (draw refunded)
57%
Lovćen (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iskra at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.10 · 52 matches

Lovćen away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.36 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iskra attack 1.31 + Lovćen defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.33

Lovćen attack 1.15 + Iskra defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Iskra scores more
41%
level
27%
Lovćen scores more
32%

Iskra at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Iskra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Iskra 0–1 Lovćen

Lovćen beat Iskra 1-0 in Second League on October 12, 2025.

The match was played at Braca Velasevic Stadium in Danilovgrad.