Iskra 4–1 Internacional Podgorica: Result & Stats

Iskra

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Internacional Podgorica

3/28/2026

Second League · Round 26

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Iskra54%

×Draw24%

Internacional Podgorica22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IskraExpected goals in this matchInternacional Podgorica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

0.98

Iskra

1.70

Internacional Podgorica

0.98

Iskra creates 73% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 36 away

1.31

creates per match

0.86

1.10

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Iskra

1.31

Internacional Podgorica

0.86

allows per match

Iskra

1.10

Internacional Podgorica

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Iskra+0.00on par

Internacional Podgorica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iskra ↓

Internacional Podgorica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Iskra or draw

78%

Iskra or Internacional Podgorica

76%

Draw or Internacional Podgorica

46%

Winning margin

Iskra wins by 2+

30%

Internacional Podgorica wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Iskra 1+ goals

82%

Iskra 2+ goals

51%

Iskra 3+ goals

24%

Internacional Podgorica 1+ goals

62%

Internacional Podgorica 2+ goals

26%

Internacional Podgorica 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Iskra (draw refunded)

71%

Internacional Podgorica (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iskra at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.10 · 52 matches

Internacional Podgorica away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.08 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iskra attack 1.31 + Internacional Podgorica defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.70

Internacional Podgorica attack 0.86 + Iskra defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Iskra scores more

54%

level

24%

Internacional Podgorica scores more

22%

Iskra at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Iskra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff