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Iskra vs Buducnost Podgorica — Cup 2020

Iskra
Iskraadvanced
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Buducnost Podgorica
Buducnost Podgorica
2/15/2025CupCup · Quarter-finalsStadion Tuško Polje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Iskra25%
×Draw23%
Buducnost Podgorica51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Iskra
1.19
Buducnost Podgorica
1.79

Buducnost Podgorica creates 50% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

creates per match

Iskra
1.20
Buducnost Podgorica
2.18

allows per match

Iskra
1.40
Buducnost Podgorica
1.18

finishing

Iskra+0.00on par
Buducnost Podgorica+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iskra ↓

Buducnost Podgorica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Iskra or draw
49%
Iskra or Buducnost Podgorica
77%
Draw or Buducnost Podgorica
75%

Winning margin

Iskra wins by 2+
10%
Buducnost Podgorica wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Iskra 1+ goals
70%
Iskra 2+ goals
33%
Iskra 3+ goals
12%
Buducnost Podgorica 1+ goals
83%
Buducnost Podgorica 2+ goals
53%
Buducnost Podgorica 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Iskra (draw refunded)
33%
Buducnost Podgorica (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iskra at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Buducnost Podgorica away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iskra attack 1.20 + Buducnost Podgorica defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.19

Buducnost Podgorica attack 2.18 + Iskra defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Iskra scores more
25%
level
23%
Buducnost Podgorica scores more
51%

Buducnost Podgorica at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Buducnost Podgorica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Iskra vs Buducnost Podgorica

Iskra and Buducnost Podgorica drew 0-0 in Cup on February 15, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Tuško Polje in Tuzi.