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İskenderunspor vs Tire 2021 FK — Türkiye Kupası 2018

İskenderunspor
İskenderunspor
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Tire 2021 FK
Tire 2021 FK
12/4/2024Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 4th RoundKırıkhan İlçe Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

İskenderunspor40%
×Draw23%
Tire 2021 FK38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

İskenderunspor
1.74
Tire 2021 FK
1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

creates per match

İskenderunspor
2.14
Tire 2021 FK
1.67

allows per match

İskenderunspor
1.71
Tire 2021 FK
1.33

finishing

İskenderunspor+0.00on par
Tire 2021 FK+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

İskenderunspor ↓

Tire 2021 FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

İskenderunspor or draw
62%
İskenderunspor or Tire 2021 FK
77%
Draw or Tire 2021 FK
60%

Winning margin

İskenderunspor wins by 2+
21%
Tire 2021 FK wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

İskenderunspor 1+ goals
82%
İskenderunspor 2+ goals
52%
İskenderunspor 3+ goals
25%
Tire 2021 FK 1+ goals
82%
Tire 2021 FK 2+ goals
50%
Tire 2021 FK 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

İskenderunspor (draw refunded)
51%
Tire 2021 FK (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

İskenderunspor at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Tire 2021 FK away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

İskenderunspor attack 2.14 + Tire 2021 FK defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.74

Tire 2021 FK attack 1.67 + İskenderunspor defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

İskenderunspor scores more
40%
level
23%
Tire 2021 FK scores more
38%

İskenderunspor at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "İskenderunspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: İskenderunspor 4–1 Tire 2021 FK

İskenderunspor beat Tire 2021 FK 4-1 in Türkiye Kupası on December 4, 2024.

The match was played at Kırıkhan İlçe Stadyumu in Kırıkhan.