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İskenderunspor vs Payasspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

İskenderunspor
İskenderunspor
AET
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Payasspor
Payasspor
10/14/2020Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 1st RoundPayas İlçe Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

İskenderunspor63%
×Draw18%
Payasspor20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

İskenderunspor
2.74
Payasspor
1.52

İskenderunspor creates 80% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

creates per match

İskenderunspor
2.14
Payasspor
1.33

allows per match

İskenderunspor
1.71
Payasspor
3.33

finishing

İskenderunspor+0.00on par
Payasspor+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

İskenderunspor ↓

Payasspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

İskenderunspor or draw
80%
İskenderunspor or Payasspor
82%
Draw or Payasspor
37%

Winning margin

İskenderunspor wins by 2+
42%
Payasspor wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

İskenderunspor 1+ goals
93%
İskenderunspor 2+ goals
75%
İskenderunspor 3+ goals
51%
Payasspor 1+ goals
78%
Payasspor 2+ goals
45%
Payasspor 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

İskenderunspor (draw refunded)
76%
Payasspor (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

İskenderunspor at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Payasspor away — creates 1.33, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

İskenderunspor attack 2.14 + Payasspor defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.74

Payasspor attack 1.33 + İskenderunspor defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

İskenderunspor scores more
63%
level
18%
Payasspor scores more
20%

İskenderunspor at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "İskenderunspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: İskenderunspor 1–1 Payasspor

İskenderunspor and Payasspor drew 1-1 in Türkiye Kupası on October 14, 2020.

The match was played at Payas İlçe Stadyumu in Payas.