İskenderunspor 1–0 Hatayspor: Result & Stats

İskenderunspor

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Hatayspor

G. Sağlam 43' (OG)

12/19/2024

Türkiye Kupası · 5th RoundKırıkhan İlçe Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

İskenderunspor43%

×Draw24%

Hatayspor33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

İskenderunsporExpected goals in this matchHatayspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.38

İskenderunspor

1.60

Hatayspor

1.38

İskenderunspor creates 16% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

2.00

creates per match

1.00

1.75

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

İskenderunspor

2.00

Hatayspor

1.00

allows per match

İskenderunspor

1.75

Hatayspor

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

İskenderunspor+0.00on par

Hatayspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

İskenderunspor ↓

Hatayspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

İskenderunspor or draw

67%

İskenderunspor or Hatayspor

76%

Draw or Hatayspor

57%

Winning margin

İskenderunspor wins by 2+

22%

Hatayspor wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

İskenderunspor 1+ goals

80%

İskenderunspor 2+ goals

47%

İskenderunspor 3+ goals

22%

Hatayspor 1+ goals

75%

Hatayspor 2+ goals

40%

Hatayspor 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

İskenderunspor (draw refunded)

56%

Hatayspor (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

İskenderunspor at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Hatayspor away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

İskenderunspor attack 2.00 + Hatayspor defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.60

Hatayspor attack 1.00 + İskenderunspor defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

İskenderunspor scores more

43%

level

24%

Hatayspor scores more

33%

İskenderunspor at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "İskenderunspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

K. Alici

31'

S. Eralp

43'

G. SağlamOwn goal

46'

G. Kilama← O. Matur

46'

L. Diack← S. Temel

46'

V. Aboubakar← C. Strandberg

81'

R. B. Yilmaz

82'

Ö. Gür← M. Manış

88'

Y. Başaytaç← B. Çolak

88'

K. Kurşun← S. Eralp

90'

Y. Basaytac

90'

G. Saglam

90+3'

G. Isilak

90+4'

U. Zengin

90+2'

M. Bilir← M. Beşir

90+2'

A. Tüfekci← T. Tuzlacık

İskenderunspor

Hatayspor

12

15

22

27

31

▼

Matur

6

Parmak

5

🥅

Sağlam

16

▼

Temel

10

▼

7

77

99

31

17

5

13

4

▼

Tuzlacık

14

▼

Çolak

23

▼

Eralp

11

▼

Manış

8

Işılak

97

▼

Beşir

Manager: G. Aslan

82'▲Ö. Gür←▼M. Manış

88'▲Y. Başaytaç←▼B. Çolak

88'▲K. Kurşun←▼S. Eralp

90+2'▲M. Bilir←▼M. Beşir

90+2'▲A. Tüfekci←▼T. Tuzlacık

İskenderunspor substitutes

77Gür66Başaytaç10Kurşun94Bilir26Tüfekci54Kazancı9Çölbeyi47Khalil75Boyacı37Cinkara

Manager: R. Çalımbay

46'▲G. Kilama←▼O. Matur

46'▲L. Diack←▼S. Temel

46'▲V. Aboubakar←▼C. Strandberg

Hatayspor substitutes

3Kilama17Diack9Aboubakar93Zobu95Buz14Pedro34Sarıcalı78Dadük25Yıldız