İskenderunspor 1–2 Fatih Karagümrük: Result & Stats

İskenderunspor

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Fatih Karagümrük

A. Ercan 80'

U. Akyol 90+2'

E. Sancar 55'

9/20/2017

Türkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundŞehit Muhammet Oğuz Kılınç Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

İskenderunspor37%

×Draw22%

Fatih Karagümrük41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

İskenderunsporExpected goals in this matchFatih Karagümrük

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.83

İskenderunspor

1.73

Fatih Karagümrük

1.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 13 away

2.00

creates per match

1.92

1.75

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

İskenderunspor

2.00

Fatih Karagümrük

1.92

allows per match

İskenderunspor

1.75

Fatih Karagümrük

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

İskenderunspor+0.00on par

Fatih Karagümrük+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

İskenderunspor ↓

Fatih Karagümrük →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

İskenderunspor or draw

59%

İskenderunspor or Fatih Karagümrük

78%

Draw or Fatih Karagümrük

63%

Winning margin

İskenderunspor wins by 2+

19%

Fatih Karagümrük wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

İskenderunspor 1+ goals

82%

İskenderunspor 2+ goals

52%

İskenderunspor 3+ goals

25%

Fatih Karagümrük 1+ goals

84%

Fatih Karagümrük 2+ goals

54%

Fatih Karagümrük 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

İskenderunspor (draw refunded)

47%

Fatih Karagümrük (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

İskenderunspor at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Fatih Karagümrük away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

İskenderunspor attack 2.00 + Fatih Karagümrük defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.73

Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.92 + İskenderunspor defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

İskenderunspor scores more

37%

level

22%

Fatih Karagümrük scores more

41%

Fatih Karagümrük at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Fatih Karagümrük will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

A. Ercan← Y. Abdioğlu

44'

B. Göksel← E. Başkaya

55'

66'

72'

80'

86'

H. Tokmak← H. Albayrak

90+2'

U. Akyol

İskenderunspor

Fatih

1

5

88

22

77

16

27

▼

Başkaya

19

⚽

Akyol

10

▼

Albayrak

90

▼

Kaya

21

⚽

1

88

23

22

8

46

17

3

5

96

▼

Yürür

33

▼

Abdioğlu

Manager: R. Aydemir

35'▲A. Ercan←▼Y. Abdioğlu

72'▲O. Yılmaz←▼S. Yürür

İskenderunspor substitutes

11Ercan35Yılmaz6Erdoğan7Çataloluk13Gör25Selimoğlu99Kavurkacı

Manager: F. Özgün

44'▲B. Göksel←▼E. Başkaya

66'▲T. Yıldız←▼G. Kaya

86'▲H. Tokmak←▼H. Albayrak

Fatih Karagümrük substitutes

11Göksel25Yıldız2Tokmak3Öztürk4Ortakcı33Gelmen96Sapan

Match Recap: İskenderunspor vs Fatih Karagümrük

Fatih Karagümrük beat İskenderunspor 2-1 in Türkiye Kupası on September 20, 2017.

Goals: E. Sancar (55'), A. Ercan (80'), U. Akyol (90+2').

The match was played at Şehit Muhammet Oğuz Kılınç Stadı in Erzin.

İskenderunspor vs Fatih Karagümrük — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: İskenderunspor vs Fatih Karagümrük