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İskenderunspor vs Adıyaman 1954 — Türkiye Kupası 2018

İskenderunspor
İskenderunspor
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Adıyaman 1954
Adıyaman 1954
9/12/2018Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 2nd RoundŞehit Muhammet Oğuz Kılınç Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

İskenderunspor52%
×Draw21%
Adıyaman 195428%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

İskenderunspor
2.17
Adıyaman 1954
1.55

İskenderunspor creates 40% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

İskenderunspor
2.14
Adıyaman 1954
1.40

allows per match

İskenderunspor
1.71
Adıyaman 1954
2.20

finishing

İskenderunspor+0.00on par
Adıyaman 1954+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

İskenderunspor ↓

Adıyaman 1954 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

İskenderunspor or draw
72%
İskenderunspor or Adıyaman 1954
79%
Draw or Adıyaman 1954
48%

Winning margin

İskenderunspor wins by 2+
31%
Adıyaman 1954 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

İskenderunspor 1+ goals
89%
İskenderunspor 2+ goals
64%
İskenderunspor 3+ goals
36%
Adıyaman 1954 1+ goals
79%
Adıyaman 1954 2+ goals
46%
Adıyaman 1954 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

İskenderunspor (draw refunded)
65%
Adıyaman 1954 (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

İskenderunspor at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Adıyaman 1954 away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

İskenderunspor attack 2.14 + Adıyaman 1954 defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.17

Adıyaman 1954 attack 1.40 + İskenderunspor defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

İskenderunspor scores more
52%
level
21%
Adıyaman 1954 scores more
28%

İskenderunspor at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "İskenderunspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: İskenderunspor 3–0 Adıyaman 1954

İskenderunspor beat Adıyaman 1954 3-0 in Türkiye Kupası on September 12, 2018.

The match was played at Şehit Muhammet Oğuz Kılınç Stadı in Erzin.