Isidro Metapán 4–2 Independiente: Result & Stats

Isidro Metapán

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Independiente

D. Díaz 87'

Lucas Oliveira 48', 13'

J. Williams 44'

T. Peña 45+2' (pen)

C. Gómez 32'

9/29/2019

Primera Division · Apertura - 12Estadio Jorge Calero Suárez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Isidro Metapán43%

×Draw29%

Independiente28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Isidro MetapánExpected goals in this matchIndependiente

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.95

Isidro Metapán

1.23

Independiente

0.95

Isidro Metapán creates 29% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 17 away

1.29

creates per match

0.82

1.07

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Isidro Metapán

1.29

Independiente

0.82

allows per match

Isidro Metapán

1.07

Independiente

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Isidro Metapán+0.00on par

Independiente+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Isidro Metapán ↓

Independiente →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Isidro Metapán or draw

72%

Isidro Metapán or Independiente

71%

Draw or Independiente

57%

Winning margin

Isidro Metapán wins by 2+

19%

Independiente wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Isidro Metapán 1+ goals

71%

Isidro Metapán 2+ goals

35%

Isidro Metapán 3+ goals

13%

Independiente 1+ goals

61%

Independiente 2+ goals

25%

Independiente 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Isidro Metapán (draw refunded)

60%

Independiente (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Isidro Metapán at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.07 · 147 matches

Independiente away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Isidro Metapán attack 1.29 + Independiente defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.23

Independiente attack 0.82 + Isidro Metapán defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Isidro Metapán scores more

43%

level

29%

Independiente scores more

28%

Isidro Metapán at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Isidro Metapán will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

Lucas Oliveira

32'

C. Gómez

44'

J. Williams

45+2'

T. PeñaPenalty

48'

Lucas Oliveira

55'

R. Burgos← G. Núñez

64'

A. Acevedo← C. Carrillo

68'

D. Luna← F. Valladares

83'

D. Díaz← Lucas Oliveira

87'

D. Díaz

90+1'

C. Cisneros← H. Caicedo

90+1'

J. Ríos← C. García

Isidro

Independiente

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

Manager: E. Portillo

83'▲D. Díaz←▼Lucas Oliveira

90+1'▲C. Cisneros←▼H. Caicedo

90+1'▲J. Ríos←▼C. García

Isidro Metapán substitutes

DíazCisnerosRíos

Manager: Juan Cortes

55'▲R. Burgos←▼G. Núñez

64'▲A. Acevedo←▼C. Carrillo

68'▲D. Luna←▼F. Valladares

Independiente substitutes

BurgosAcevedoLuna

Primera Division: Isidro Metapán 4–2 Independiente

Isidro Metapán beat Independiente 4-2 in Primera Division on September 29, 2019.

Goals: Lucas Oliveira (13', 48'), C. Gómez (32'), J. Williams (44'), T. Peña (45+2' pen), D. Díaz (87').

The match was played at Estadio Jorge Calero Suárez in Metapán.

Isidro Metapán vs Independiente — Primera Division 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera Division: Isidro Metapán 4–2 Independiente