Isidro Metapán 1–0 Alianza: Result & Stats

Isidro Metapán

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Alianza

10/12/2025

Primera Division · Apertura - 16Estadio Jorge Calero Suárez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 147+ matches

Isidro Metapán32%

×Draw27%

Alianza41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Isidro MetapánExpected goals in this matchAlianza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.30

Isidro Metapán

1.12

Alianza

1.30

Alianza creates 16% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 154 away

1.29

creates per match

1.53

1.07

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Isidro Metapán

1.29

Alianza

1.53

allows per match

Isidro Metapán

1.07

Alianza

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Isidro Metapán+0.00on par

Alianza+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Isidro Metapán ↓

Alianza →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Isidro Metapán or draw

59%

Isidro Metapán or Alianza

73%

Draw or Alianza

68%

Winning margin

Isidro Metapán wins by 2+

13%

Alianza wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Isidro Metapán 1+ goals

67%

Isidro Metapán 2+ goals

31%

Isidro Metapán 3+ goals

10%

Alianza 1+ goals

73%

Alianza 2+ goals

37%

Alianza 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Isidro Metapán (draw refunded)

44%

Alianza (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Isidro Metapán at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.07 · 147 matches

Alianza away — creates 1.53, concedes 0.95 · 154 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Isidro Metapán attack 1.29 + Alianza defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.12

Alianza attack 1.53 + Isidro Metapán defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Isidro Metapán scores more

32%

level

27%

Alianza scores more

41%

Alianza at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Alianza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff