Isibania 0–1 Western Stima: Result & Stats

Isibania

FT

0 – 1

Western Stima

2/25/2018

Super League · Super League - Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Isibania22%

×Draw28%

Western Stima50%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IsibaniaExpected goals in this matchWestern Stima

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.79

1.34

Isibania

0.79

Western Stima

1.34

Western Stima creates 70% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 18 away

0.65

creates per match

1.28

1.41

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Isibania

0.65

Western Stima

1.28

allows per match

Isibania

1.41

Western Stima

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Isibania+0.00on par

Western Stima+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Isibania ↓

Western Stima →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–116%

0–211%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Isibania or draw

50%

Isibania or Western Stima

72%

Draw or Western Stima

78%

Winning margin

Isibania wins by 2+

7%

Western Stima wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Isibania 1+ goals

55%

Isibania 2+ goals

19%

Isibania 3+ goals

5%

Western Stima 1+ goals

74%

Western Stima 2+ goals

39%

Western Stima 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Isibania (draw refunded)

31%

Western Stima (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Isibania at home — creates 0.65, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Western Stima away — creates 1.28, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Isibania attack 0.65 + Western Stima defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.79

Western Stima attack 1.28 + Isibania defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Isibania scores more

22%

level

28%

Western Stima scores more

50%

Western Stima at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Western Stima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff