Isibania 1–2 Kisumu All Stars: Result & Stats

Isibania

FT

1 – 2

Kisumu All Stars

4/27/2018

Super League · Super League - Round 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Isibania36%

×Draw29%

Kisumu All Stars36%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IsibaniaExpected goals in this matchKisumu All Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

Isibania

1.14

Kisumu All Stars

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 102 away

0.78

creates per match

0.89

1.39

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Isibania

0.78

Kisumu All Stars

0.89

allows per match

Isibania

1.39

Kisumu All Stars

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Isibania+0.00on par

Kisumu All Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Isibania ↓

Kisumu All Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Isibania or draw

64%

Isibania or Kisumu All Stars

71%

Draw or Kisumu All Stars

64%

Winning margin

Isibania wins by 2+

15%

Kisumu All Stars wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Isibania 1+ goals

68%

Isibania 2+ goals

32%

Isibania 3+ goals

11%

Kisumu All Stars 1+ goals

68%

Kisumu All Stars 2+ goals

32%

Kisumu All Stars 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Isibania (draw refunded)

50%

Kisumu All Stars (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Isibania at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.39 · 18 matches

Kisumu All Stars away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.49 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Isibania attack 0.78 + Kisumu All Stars defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.14

Kisumu All Stars attack 0.89 + Isibania defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Isibania scores more

36%

level

29%

Kisumu All Stars scores more

36%

Isibania at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Isibania will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff