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Isibania vs Green Commandos — Super League 2018

Isibania
Isibania
FT
1 – 0
Green Commandos
Green Commandos
8/29/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 26

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Isibania40%
×Draw28%
Green Commandos32%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Isibania
1.25
Green Commandos
1.09

Isibania creates 15% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

creates per match

Isibania
0.69
Green Commandos
0.75

allows per match

Isibania
1.44
Green Commandos
1.81

finishing

Isibania+0.00on par
Green Commandos+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Isibania ↓

Green Commandos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Isibania or draw
68%
Isibania or Green Commandos
72%
Draw or Green Commandos
60%

Winning margin

Isibania wins by 2+
18%
Green Commandos wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Isibania 1+ goals
71%
Isibania 2+ goals
36%
Isibania 3+ goals
13%
Green Commandos 1+ goals
66%
Green Commandos 2+ goals
30%
Green Commandos 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Isibania (draw refunded)
55%
Green Commandos (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Isibania at home — creates 0.69, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

Green Commandos away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Isibania attack 0.69 + Green Commandos defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.25

Green Commandos attack 0.75 + Isibania defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Isibania scores more
40%
level
28%
Green Commandos scores more
32%

Isibania at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Isibania will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Isibania vs Green Commandos

Isibania beat Green Commandos 1-0 in Super League on August 29, 2018.