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Isibania vs Bidco United — Super League 2018

Isibania
Isibania
FT
0 – 4
Bidco United
Bidco United
5/26/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 19

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Isibania19%
×Draw28%
Bidco United54%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Isibania
0.70
Bidco United
1.40

Bidco United creates 100% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 16 away

creates per match

Isibania
0.65
Bidco United
1.38

allows per match

Isibania
1.41
Bidco United
0.75

finishing

Isibania+0.00on par
Bidco United+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Isibania ↓

Bidco United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–117%
0–212%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Isibania or draw
46%
Isibania or Bidco United
72%
Draw or Bidco United
81%

Winning margin

Isibania wins by 2+
5%
Bidco United wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Isibania 1+ goals
50%
Isibania 2+ goals
16%
Isibania 3+ goals
3%
Bidco United 1+ goals
75%
Bidco United 2+ goals
41%
Bidco United 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Isibania (draw refunded)
26%
Bidco United (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Isibania at home — creates 0.65, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Bidco United away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.75 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Isibania attack 0.65 + Bidco United defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.70

Bidco United attack 1.38 + Isibania defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Isibania scores more
19%
level
28%
Bidco United scores more
54%

Bidco United at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Bidco United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Isibania vs Bidco United

Bidco United beat Isibania 4-0 in Super League on May 26, 2018.