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Isibania vs Administration Police Fc — Super League 2018

Isibania
Isibania
FT
1 – 2
Administration Police Fc
Administration Police Fc
7/1/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 21

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Isibania35%
×Draw28%
Administration Police Fc37%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Isibania
1.18
Administration Police Fc
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 18 away

creates per match

Isibania
0.69
Administration Police Fc
1.00

allows per match

Isibania
1.44
Administration Police Fc
1.67

finishing

Isibania+0.00on par
Administration Police Fc+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Isibania ↓

Administration Police Fc →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Isibania or draw
63%
Isibania or Administration Police Fc
72%
Draw or Administration Police Fc
65%

Winning margin

Isibania wins by 2+
15%
Administration Police Fc wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Isibania 1+ goals
69%
Isibania 2+ goals
33%
Isibania 3+ goals
12%
Administration Police Fc 1+ goals
70%
Administration Police Fc 2+ goals
34%
Administration Police Fc 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Isibania (draw refunded)
49%
Administration Police Fc (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Isibania at home — creates 0.69, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

Administration Police Fc away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Isibania attack 0.69 + Administration Police Fc defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.18

Administration Police Fc attack 1.00 + Isibania defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Isibania scores more
35%
level
28%
Administration Police Fc scores more
37%

Administration Police Fc at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Administration Police Fc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Isibania 1–2 Administration Police Fc

Administration Police Fc beat Isibania 2-1 in Super League on July 1, 2018.