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Ishøj vs VSK Århus — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Ishøj
Ishøj
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
VSK Århus
VSK Århus
3/28/20262nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 20Ishøj Idrætscenter

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Ishøj34%
×Draw27%
VSK Århus38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ishøj
1.18
VSK Århus
1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 29 away

creates per match

Ishøj
1.25
VSK Århus
1.14

allows per match

Ishøj
1.38
VSK Århus
1.10

finishing

Ishøj+0.00on par
VSK Århus+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ishøj ↓

VSK Århus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ishøj or draw
62%
Ishøj or VSK Århus
73%
Draw or VSK Århus
66%

Winning margin

Ishøj wins by 2+
14%
VSK Århus wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Ishøj 1+ goals
69%
Ishøj 2+ goals
33%
Ishøj 3+ goals
12%
VSK Århus 1+ goals
72%
VSK Århus 2+ goals
36%
VSK Århus 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Ishøj (draw refunded)
47%
VSK Århus (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ishøj at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.38 · 32 matches

VSK Århus away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.10 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ishøj attack 1.25 + VSK Århus defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.18

VSK Århus attack 1.14 + Ishøj defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ishøj scores more
34%
level
27%
VSK Århus scores more
38%

VSK Århus at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "VSK Århus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ishøj vs VSK Århus

Ishøj and VSK Århus drew 2-2 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on March 28, 2026.

The match was played at Ishøj Idrætscenter in Ishøj.