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Ishøj vs FC Helsingor — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Ishøj
Ishøj
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
FC Helsingor
FC Helsingor
J. Moussa 86'
T. Pedersen 80'
M. Al Atlassi 38'
M. Brems 56'
R. Linden 7'
5/31/20252nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Relegation Round - 8Ishøj Idrætscenter

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Ishøj37%
×Draw25%
FC Helsingor38%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ishøj
1.41
FC Helsingor
1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 40 away

creates per match

Ishøj
1.25
FC Helsingor
1.48

allows per match

Ishøj
1.38
FC Helsingor
1.57

finishing

Ishøj+0.00on par
FC Helsingor+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ishøj ↓

FC Helsingor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Ishøj or draw
62%
Ishøj or FC Helsingor
75%
Draw or FC Helsingor
63%

Winning margin

Ishøj wins by 2+
17%
FC Helsingor wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Ishøj 1+ goals
76%
Ishøj 2+ goals
41%
Ishøj 3+ goals
17%
FC Helsingor 1+ goals
76%
FC Helsingor 2+ goals
42%
FC Helsingor 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Ishøj (draw refunded)
49%
FC Helsingor (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ishøj at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.38 · 32 matches

FC Helsingor away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.57 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ishøj attack 1.25 + FC Helsingor defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.41

FC Helsingor attack 1.48 + Ishøj defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ishøj scores more
37%
level
25%
FC Helsingor scores more
38%

FC Helsingor at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FC Helsingor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
R. Linden
38'
M. Al Atlassi
56'
M. Brems
59'
H. Laerke
61'
H. El Idrissi← H. El Idrissi
71'
R. Sjoholm← R. Sjoholm
71'
R. Marcus← R. Marcus
76'
C. Cordua
77'
H. Tumturk← H. Tumturk
80'
T. Pedersen
81'
T. Augustinus-Jensen← E. Larsen
86'
J. Moussa
86'
H. Elsayed← H. Elsayed

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2nd Division - Group 1: Ishøj 3–2 FC Helsingor

Ishøj beat FC Helsingor 3-2 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on May 31, 2025.

Goals: R. Linden (7'), M. Al Atlassi (38'), M. Brems (56'), T. Pedersen (80'), J. Moussa (86').

The match was played at Ishøj Idrætscenter in Ishøj.