Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ishøj vs Aarhus Fremad — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Ishøj
Ishøj
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Aarhus Fremad
Aarhus Fremad
10/26/20242nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 13Ishøj Idrætscenter

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Ishøj30%
×Draw25%
Aarhus Fremad44%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ishøj
1.20
Aarhus Fremad
1.51

Aarhus Fremad creates 26% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 80 away

creates per match

Ishøj
1.25
Aarhus Fremad
1.65

allows per match

Ishøj
1.38
Aarhus Fremad
1.15

finishing

Ishøj+0.00on par
Aarhus Fremad+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ishøj ↓

Aarhus Fremad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Ishøj or draw
56%
Ishøj or Aarhus Fremad
75%
Draw or Aarhus Fremad
70%

Winning margin

Ishøj wins by 2+
12%
Aarhus Fremad wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Ishøj 1+ goals
70%
Ishøj 2+ goals
34%
Ishøj 3+ goals
12%
Aarhus Fremad 1+ goals
78%
Aarhus Fremad 2+ goals
44%
Aarhus Fremad 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Ishøj (draw refunded)
41%
Aarhus Fremad (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ishøj at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.38 · 32 matches

Aarhus Fremad away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.15 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ishøj attack 1.25 + Aarhus Fremad defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.20

Aarhus Fremad attack 1.65 + Ishøj defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ishøj scores more
30%
level
25%
Aarhus Fremad scores more
44%

Aarhus Fremad at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Aarhus Fremad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2nd Division - Group 1: Ishøj 1–3 Aarhus Fremad

Aarhus Fremad beat Ishøj 3-1 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on October 26, 2024.

The match was played at Ishøj Idrætscenter in Ishøj.