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Ischia vs Latte Dolce — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Ischia
Ischia
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Latte Dolce
Latte Dolce
11/5/2023Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 10Stadio Comunale Vincenzo Mazzella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Ischia45%
×Draw27%
Latte Dolce28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ischia
1.41
Latte Dolce
1.06

Ischia creates 33% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 82 away

creates per match

Ischia
1.23
Latte Dolce
1.10

allows per match

Ischia
1.03
Latte Dolce
1.59

finishing

Ischia+0.00on par
Latte Dolce+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ischia ↓

Latte Dolce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ischia or draw
72%
Ischia or Latte Dolce
73%
Draw or Latte Dolce
55%

Winning margin

Ischia wins by 2+
22%
Latte Dolce wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ischia 1+ goals
76%
Ischia 2+ goals
41%
Ischia 3+ goals
17%
Latte Dolce 1+ goals
65%
Latte Dolce 2+ goals
29%
Latte Dolce 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ischia (draw refunded)
61%
Latte Dolce (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ischia at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.03 · 35 matches

Latte Dolce away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.59 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ischia attack 1.23 + Latte Dolce defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.41

Latte Dolce attack 1.10 + Ischia defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ischia scores more
45%
level
27%
Latte Dolce scores more
28%

Ischia at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ischia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ischia vs Latte Dolce

Ischia beat Latte Dolce 2-1 in Serie D - Girone G on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Vincenzo Mazzella in Ischia.