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Ischia vs Ardea — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Ischia
Ischia
FT
0 – 0
Ardea
Ardea
1/7/2024Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 18Stadio Comunale Vincenzo Mazzella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ischia40%
×Draw27%
Ardea33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ischia
1.32
Ardea
1.16

Ischia creates 14% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 17 away

creates per match

Ischia
1.23
Ardea
1.29

allows per match

Ischia
1.03
Ardea
1.41

finishing

Ischia+0.00on par
Ardea+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ischia ↓

Ardea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ischia or draw
67%
Ischia or Ardea
73%
Draw or Ardea
60%

Winning margin

Ischia wins by 2+
18%
Ardea wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ischia 1+ goals
73%
Ischia 2+ goals
38%
Ischia 3+ goals
15%
Ardea 1+ goals
69%
Ardea 2+ goals
32%
Ardea 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ischia (draw refunded)
55%
Ardea (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ischia at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.03 · 35 matches

Ardea away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ischia attack 1.23 + Ardea defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.32

Ardea attack 1.29 + Ischia defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ischia scores more
40%
level
27%
Ardea scores more
33%

Ischia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ischia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Ischia 0–0 Ardea

Ischia and Ardea drew 0-0 in Serie D - Girone G on January 7, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Vincenzo Mazzella in Ischia.