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Isaac de Benguela vs Sporting de Cabinda — Girabola 2019

Isaac de Benguela
Isaac de Benguela
FT
0 – 1
Sporting de Cabinda
Sporting de Cabinda
10/22/2022GirabolaGirabola · Round 5Estádio Municipal Edelfride Palhares da Costa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Isaac de Benguela46%
×Draw29%
Sporting de Cabinda25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Isaac de Benguela
1.27
Sporting de Cabinda
0.84

Isaac de Benguela creates 51% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 66 away

creates per match

Isaac de Benguela
0.62
Sporting de Cabinda
0.53

allows per match

Isaac de Benguela
1.15
Sporting de Cabinda
1.92

finishing

Isaac de Benguela+0.00on par
Sporting de Cabinda+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Isaac de Benguela ↓

Sporting de Cabinda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Isaac de Benguela or draw
75%
Isaac de Benguela or Sporting de Cabinda
71%
Draw or Sporting de Cabinda
54%

Winning margin

Isaac de Benguela wins by 2+
21%
Sporting de Cabinda wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Isaac de Benguela 1+ goals
72%
Isaac de Benguela 2+ goals
36%
Isaac de Benguela 3+ goals
14%
Sporting de Cabinda 1+ goals
57%
Sporting de Cabinda 2+ goals
21%
Sporting de Cabinda 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Isaac de Benguela (draw refunded)
65%
Sporting de Cabinda (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Isaac de Benguela at home — creates 0.62, concedes 1.15 · 26 matches

Sporting de Cabinda away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.92 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Isaac de Benguela attack 0.62 + Sporting de Cabinda defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.27

Sporting de Cabinda attack 0.53 + Isaac de Benguela defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Isaac de Benguela scores more
46%
level
29%
Sporting de Cabinda scores more
25%

Isaac de Benguela at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Isaac de Benguela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Isaac de Benguela vs Sporting de Cabinda

Sporting de Cabinda beat Isaac de Benguela 1-0 in Girabola on October 22, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Edelfride Palhares da Costa in Benguela.