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Isaac de Benguela vs Sporting de Benguela — Girabola 2019

Isaac de Benguela
Isaac de Benguela
FT
0 – 1
Sporting de Benguela
Sporting de Benguela
11/5/2022GirabolaGirabola · Round 7Estádio Municipal Edelfride Palhares da Costa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Isaac de Benguela59%
×Draw24%
Sporting de Benguela17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Isaac de Benguela
1.67
Sporting de Benguela
0.76

Isaac de Benguela creates 120% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 29 away

creates per match

Isaac de Benguela
0.62
Sporting de Benguela
0.38

allows per match

Isaac de Benguela
1.15
Sporting de Benguela
2.72

finishing

Isaac de Benguela+0.00on par
Sporting de Benguela+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Isaac de Benguela ↓

Sporting de Benguela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Isaac de Benguela or draw
83%
Isaac de Benguela or Sporting de Benguela
76%
Draw or Sporting de Benguela
41%

Winning margin

Isaac de Benguela wins by 2+
33%
Sporting de Benguela wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Isaac de Benguela 1+ goals
81%
Isaac de Benguela 2+ goals
50%
Isaac de Benguela 3+ goals
23%
Sporting de Benguela 1+ goals
53%
Sporting de Benguela 2+ goals
18%
Sporting de Benguela 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Isaac de Benguela (draw refunded)
78%
Sporting de Benguela (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Isaac de Benguela at home — creates 0.62, concedes 1.15 · 26 matches

Sporting de Benguela away — creates 0.38, concedes 2.72 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Isaac de Benguela attack 0.62 + Sporting de Benguela defence 2.72 → ÷2 → 1.67

Sporting de Benguela attack 0.38 + Isaac de Benguela defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Isaac de Benguela scores more
59%
level
24%
Sporting de Benguela scores more
17%

Isaac de Benguela at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Isaac de Benguela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Isaac de Benguela 0–1 Sporting de Benguela

Sporting de Benguela beat Isaac de Benguela 1-0 in Girabola on November 5, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Edelfride Palhares da Costa in Benguela.