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Isaac de Benguela vs Santa Rita — Girabola 2019

Isaac de Benguela
Isaac de Benguela
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Santa Rita
Santa Rita
Unknown 20', 4'
N. Luyeye 59'
3/8/2025GirabolaGirabola · Round 20Estádio de São Filipe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Isaac de Benguela38%
×Draw33%
Santa Rita29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Isaac de Benguela
0.97
Santa Rita
0.82

Isaac de Benguela creates 18% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 68 away

creates per match

Isaac de Benguela
0.62
Santa Rita
0.50

allows per match

Isaac de Benguela
1.15
Santa Rita
1.32

finishing

Isaac de Benguela+0.00on par
Santa Rita+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Isaac de Benguela ↓

Santa Rita →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Isaac de Benguela or draw
71%
Isaac de Benguela or Santa Rita
67%
Draw or Santa Rita
62%

Winning margin

Isaac de Benguela wins by 2+
14%
Santa Rita wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Isaac de Benguela 1+ goals
62%
Isaac de Benguela 2+ goals
25%
Isaac de Benguela 3+ goals
7%
Santa Rita 1+ goals
56%
Santa Rita 2+ goals
20%
Santa Rita 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Isaac de Benguela (draw refunded)
56%
Santa Rita (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Isaac de Benguela at home — creates 0.62, concedes 1.15 · 26 matches

Santa Rita away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.32 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Isaac de Benguela attack 0.62 + Santa Rita defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 0.97

Santa Rita attack 0.50 + Isaac de Benguela defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Isaac de Benguela scores more
38%
level
33%
Santa Rita scores more
29%

Isaac de Benguela at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Isaac de Benguela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
20'
59'
N. Luyeye

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Isaac de Benguela vs Santa Rita

Isaac de Benguela beat Santa Rita 2-1 in Girabola on March 8, 2025.

Goals: ? (4', 20'), N. Luyeye (59').

The match was played at Estádio de São Filipe in Benguela.