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Isaac de Benguela vs Dragão — Girabola 2019

Isaac de Benguela
Isaac de Benguela
CANC
13:30
Dragão
Dragão
5/20/2023GirabolaGirabola · Round 29

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Isaac de Benguela59%
×Draw24%
Dragão17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Isaac de Benguela
1.71
Dragão
0.79

Isaac de Benguela creates 116% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 14 away

creates per match

Isaac de Benguela
0.62
Dragão
0.43

allows per match

Isaac de Benguela
1.15
Dragão
2.79

finishing

Isaac de Benguela+0.00on par
Dragão+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Isaac de Benguela ↓

Dragão →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Isaac de Benguela or draw
83%
Isaac de Benguela or Dragão
76%
Draw or Dragão
41%

Winning margin

Isaac de Benguela wins by 2+
33%
Dragão wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Isaac de Benguela 1+ goals
82%
Isaac de Benguela 2+ goals
51%
Isaac de Benguela 3+ goals
24%
Dragão 1+ goals
55%
Dragão 2+ goals
19%
Dragão 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Isaac de Benguela (draw refunded)
78%
Dragão (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Isaac de Benguela at home — creates 0.62, concedes 1.15 · 26 matches

Dragão away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Isaac de Benguela attack 0.62 + Dragão defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 1.71

Dragão attack 0.43 + Isaac de Benguela defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Isaac de Benguela scores more
59%
level
24%
Dragão scores more
17%

Isaac de Benguela at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Isaac de Benguela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Isaac de Benguela vs Dragão — Match Preview

Isaac de Benguela face Dragão on May 20, 2023 in this Girabola fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.