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Isaac de Benguela vs Cuando Cubango — Girabola 2019

Isaac de Benguela
Isaac de Benguela
CANC
00:00
Cuando Cubango
Cuando Cubango
3/4/2023GirabolaGirabola · Round 21

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Isaac de Benguela37%
×Draw31%
Cuando Cubango32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Isaac de Benguela
1.06
Cuando Cubango
0.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 50 away

creates per match

Isaac de Benguela
0.62
Cuando Cubango
0.80

allows per match

Isaac de Benguela
1.15
Cuando Cubango
1.50

finishing

Isaac de Benguela+0.00on par
Cuando Cubango+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Isaac de Benguela ↓

Cuando Cubango →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Isaac de Benguela or draw
68%
Isaac de Benguela or Cuando Cubango
69%
Draw or Cuando Cubango
63%

Winning margin

Isaac de Benguela wins by 2+
15%
Cuando Cubango wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Isaac de Benguela 1+ goals
65%
Isaac de Benguela 2+ goals
29%
Isaac de Benguela 3+ goals
9%
Cuando Cubango 1+ goals
62%
Cuando Cubango 2+ goals
25%
Cuando Cubango 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Isaac de Benguela (draw refunded)
53%
Cuando Cubango (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Isaac de Benguela at home — creates 0.62, concedes 1.15 · 26 matches

Cuando Cubango away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.50 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Isaac de Benguela attack 0.62 + Cuando Cubango defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.06

Cuando Cubango attack 0.80 + Isaac de Benguela defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Isaac de Benguela scores more
37%
level
31%
Cuando Cubango scores more
32%

Isaac de Benguela at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Isaac de Benguela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Isaac de Benguela face Cuando Cubango (Girabola)

Girabola returns with Isaac de Benguela hosting Cuando Cubango. Match starts March 4, 2023. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.