Isaac de Benguela 1–1 CD Lunda-Sul: Result & Stats

Isaac de Benguela

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

CD Lunda-Sul

11/2/2024

Girabola · Round 8Estádio de São Filipe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Isaac de Benguela31%

×Draw32%

CD Lunda-Sul37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Isaac de BenguelaExpected goals in this matchCD Lunda-Sul

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.88

0.99

Isaac de Benguela

0.88

CD Lunda-Sul

0.99

CD Lunda-Sul creates 13% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 75 away

0.62

creates per match

0.83

1.15

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Isaac de Benguela

0.62

CD Lunda-Sul

0.83

allows per match

Isaac de Benguela

1.15

CD Lunda-Sul

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Isaac de Benguela+0.00on par

CD Lunda-Sul+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Isaac de Benguela ↓

CD Lunda-Sul →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–115%

0–28%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Isaac de Benguela or draw

63%

Isaac de Benguela or CD Lunda-Sul

68%

Draw or CD Lunda-Sul

69%

Winning margin

Isaac de Benguela wins by 2+

11%

CD Lunda-Sul wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Isaac de Benguela 1+ goals

59%

Isaac de Benguela 2+ goals

22%

Isaac de Benguela 3+ goals

6%

CD Lunda-Sul 1+ goals

63%

CD Lunda-Sul 2+ goals

26%

CD Lunda-Sul 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Isaac de Benguela (draw refunded)

46%

CD Lunda-Sul (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Isaac de Benguela at home — creates 0.62, concedes 1.15 · 26 matches

CD Lunda-Sul away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.13 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Isaac de Benguela attack 0.62 + CD Lunda-Sul defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.88

CD Lunda-Sul attack 0.83 + Isaac de Benguela defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Isaac de Benguela scores more

31%

level

32%

CD Lunda-Sul scores more

37%

CD Lunda-Sul at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "CD Lunda-Sul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff