Isaac de Benguela 0–0 Carmona: Result & Stats

Isaac de Benguela

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Carmona

11/30/2024

Girabola · Round 12Estádio de São Filipe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Isaac de Benguela57%

×Draw26%

Carmona18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Isaac de BenguelaExpected goals in this matchCarmona

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

0.74

Isaac de Benguela

1.55

Carmona

0.74

Isaac de Benguela creates 109% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 15 away

0.62

creates per match

0.33

1.15

allows per match

2.47

creates per match

Isaac de Benguela

0.62

Carmona

0.33

allows per match

Isaac de Benguela

1.15

Carmona

2.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Isaac de Benguela+0.00on par

Carmona+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Isaac de Benguela ↓

Carmona →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Isaac de Benguela or draw

82%

Isaac de Benguela or Carmona

74%

Draw or Carmona

43%

Winning margin

Isaac de Benguela wins by 2+

30%

Carmona wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Isaac de Benguela 1+ goals

79%

Isaac de Benguela 2+ goals

46%

Isaac de Benguela 3+ goals

20%

Carmona 1+ goals

52%

Carmona 2+ goals

17%

Carmona 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Isaac de Benguela (draw refunded)

76%

Carmona (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Isaac de Benguela at home — creates 0.62, concedes 1.15 · 26 matches

Carmona away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Isaac de Benguela attack 0.62 + Carmona defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.55

Carmona attack 0.33 + Isaac de Benguela defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Isaac de Benguela scores more

57%

level

26%

Carmona scores more

18%

Isaac de Benguela at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Isaac de Benguela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff