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Isaac de Benguela vs Académica do Lobito — Girabola 2019

Isaac de Benguela
Isaac de Benguela
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Académica do Lobito
Académica do Lobito
12/17/2022GirabolaGirabola · Round 13Estádio Municipal Edelfride Palhares da Costa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Isaac de Benguela35%
×Draw32%
Académica do Lobito33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Isaac de Benguela
0.97
Académica do Lobito
0.92

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 100 away

creates per match

Isaac de Benguela
0.62
Académica do Lobito
0.68

allows per match

Isaac de Benguela
1.15
Académica do Lobito
1.32

finishing

Isaac de Benguela+0.00on par
Académica do Lobito+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Isaac de Benguela ↓

Académica do Lobito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Isaac de Benguela or draw
67%
Isaac de Benguela or Académica do Lobito
68%
Draw or Académica do Lobito
65%

Winning margin

Isaac de Benguela wins by 2+
13%
Académica do Lobito wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Isaac de Benguela 1+ goals
62%
Isaac de Benguela 2+ goals
25%
Isaac de Benguela 3+ goals
7%
Académica do Lobito 1+ goals
60%
Académica do Lobito 2+ goals
23%
Académica do Lobito 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Isaac de Benguela (draw refunded)
52%
Académica do Lobito (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Isaac de Benguela at home — creates 0.62, concedes 1.15 · 26 matches

Académica do Lobito away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.32 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Isaac de Benguela attack 0.62 + Académica do Lobito defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 0.97

Académica do Lobito attack 0.68 + Isaac de Benguela defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Isaac de Benguela scores more
35%
level
32%
Académica do Lobito scores more
33%

Isaac de Benguela at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Isaac de Benguela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Isaac de Benguela 1–1 Académica do Lobito

Isaac de Benguela and Académica do Lobito drew 1-1 in Girabola on December 17, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Edelfride Palhares da Costa in Benguela.