Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Irvine Meadow vs Musselburgh Athletic — FA Cup 2019

Irvine Meadow
Irvine Meadow
FT
2 – 1
Musselburgh Athletic
Musselburgh Athletic
8/28/2021FA CupFA Cup · 1st Preliminary RoundMeadow Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Irvine Meadow24%
×Draw22%
Musselburgh Athletic54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Irvine Meadow
1.27
Musselburgh Athletic
2.00

Musselburgh Athletic creates 57% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Irvine Meadow
1.33
Musselburgh Athletic
2.00

allows per match

Irvine Meadow
2.00
Musselburgh Athletic
1.20

finishing

Irvine Meadow+0.00on par
Musselburgh Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Irvine Meadow ↓

Musselburgh Athletic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Irvine Meadow or draw
46%
Irvine Meadow or Musselburgh Athletic
78%
Draw or Musselburgh Athletic
76%

Winning margin

Irvine Meadow wins by 2+
10%
Musselburgh Athletic wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Irvine Meadow 1+ goals
72%
Irvine Meadow 2+ goals
36%
Irvine Meadow 3+ goals
14%
Musselburgh Athletic 1+ goals
86%
Musselburgh Athletic 2+ goals
59%
Musselburgh Athletic 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Irvine Meadow (draw refunded)
31%
Musselburgh Athletic (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Irvine Meadow at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Musselburgh Athletic away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Irvine Meadow attack 1.33 + Musselburgh Athletic defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.27

Musselburgh Athletic attack 2.00 + Irvine Meadow defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Irvine Meadow scores more
24%
level
22%
Musselburgh Athletic scores more
54%

Musselburgh Athletic at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Musselburgh Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Irvine Meadow vs Musselburgh Athletic

Irvine Meadow beat Musselburgh Athletic 2-1 in FA Cup on August 28, 2021.

The match was played at Meadow Park in Irvine.