Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Irvine Meadow vs Dunipace — FA Cup 2019

Irvine Meadow
Irvine Meadow
FT
1 – 2
Dunipace
Dunipace
9/2/2023FA CupFA Cup · 2nd Preliminary RoundMeadow Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Irvine Meadow27%
×Draw19%
Dunipace54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Irvine Meadow
1.75
Dunipace
2.50

Dunipace creates 43% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Irvine Meadow
1.33
Dunipace
3.00

allows per match

Irvine Meadow
2.00
Dunipace
2.17

finishing

Irvine Meadow+0.00on par
Dunipace+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Irvine Meadow ↓

Dunipace →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Irvine Meadow or draw
46%
Irvine Meadow or Dunipace
81%
Draw or Dunipace
73%

Winning margin

Irvine Meadow wins by 2+
13%
Dunipace wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Irvine Meadow 1+ goals
83%
Irvine Meadow 2+ goals
52%
Irvine Meadow 3+ goals
25%
Dunipace 1+ goals
92%
Dunipace 2+ goals
71%
Dunipace 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Irvine Meadow (draw refunded)
33%
Dunipace (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Irvine Meadow at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Dunipace away — creates 3.00, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Irvine Meadow attack 1.33 + Dunipace defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.75

Dunipace attack 3.00 + Irvine Meadow defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Irvine Meadow scores more
27%
level
19%
Dunipace scores more
54%

Dunipace at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Dunipace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Irvine Meadow 1–2 Dunipace

Dunipace beat Irvine Meadow 2-1 in FA Cup on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at Meadow Park in Irvine.