Irvine Meadow 3–0 Civil Service Strollers

Irvine Meadow

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Civil Service Strollers

E. Baird 44'

L. Kennedy 38'

J. McDowall 10'

10/26/2024

FA Cup · 2nd RoundMeadow Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Irvine Meadow34%

×Draw22%

Civil Service Strollers44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Irvine MeadowExpected goals in this matchCivil Service Strollers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.93

Irvine Meadow

1.67

Civil Service Strollers

1.93

Civil Service Strollers creates 16% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

1.33

creates per match

1.86

2.00

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Irvine Meadow

1.33

Civil Service Strollers

1.86

allows per match

Irvine Meadow

2.00

Civil Service Strollers

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Irvine Meadow+0.00on par

Civil Service Strollers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Irvine Meadow ↓

Civil Service Strollers →

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–35%

1–43%

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Irvine Meadow or draw

56%

Irvine Meadow or Civil Service Strollers

78%

Draw or Civil Service Strollers

66%

Winning margin

Irvine Meadow wins by 2+

17%

Civil Service Strollers wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Irvine Meadow 1+ goals

81%

Irvine Meadow 2+ goals

50%

Irvine Meadow 3+ goals

23%

Civil Service Strollers 1+ goals

85%

Civil Service Strollers 2+ goals

57%

Civil Service Strollers 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Irvine Meadow (draw refunded)

43%

Civil Service Strollers (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Irvine Meadow at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Civil Service Strollers away — creates 1.86, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Irvine Meadow attack 1.33 + Civil Service Strollers defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Civil Service Strollers attack 1.86 + Irvine Meadow defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Irvine Meadow scores more

34%

level

22%

Civil Service Strollers scores more

44%

Civil Service Strollers at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Civil Service Strollers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

J. McDowall

38'

L. Kennedy↳ S. Gallacher

44'

E. Baird↳ D. Currie

61'

S. Aluko← A. Smith

63'

M. McLennan← S. Davidson

70'

L. Kazoka← E. Valentine

82'

H. Gilmour← D. Anderson

82'

S. McBryde← B. Sharpe

82'

G. Cree← D. Moore

86'

L. Neilson← E. Baird

Irvine

Civil

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Baird

Manager: J. Noble

63'▲M. McLennan←▼S. Davidson

82'▲H. Gilmour←▼D. Anderson

82'▲S. McBryde←▼B. Sharpe

82'▲G. Cree←▼D. Moore

86'▲L. Neilson←▼E. Baird

Irvine Meadow substitutes

12McLennan14Gilmour18McBryde15Cree17Neilson16Gallagher20Lynn

Manager: G. Jardine

61'▲S. Aluko←▼A. Smith

70'▲L. Kazoka←▼E. Valentine

Civil Service Strollers substitutes

12Aluko14Kazoka16Vata22Spratt15Gwompeter

Match Recap: Irvine Meadow vs Civil Service Strollers

Irvine Meadow beat Civil Service Strollers 3-0 in FA Cup on October 26, 2024.

Goals: J. McDowall (10'), L. Kennedy (38'), E. Baird (44').

The match was played at Meadow Park in Irvine.

Irvine Meadow vs Civil Service Strollers — FA Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Irvine Meadow vs Civil Service Strollers