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Irvine Meadow vs Auchinleck Talbot — FA Cup 2019

Irvine Meadow
Irvine Meadow
FT
1 – 3
Auchinleck Talbot
Auchinleck Talbot
9/18/2021FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundMeadow Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Irvine Meadow17%
×Draw18%
Auchinleck Talbot64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Irvine Meadow
1.21
Auchinleck Talbot
2.46

Auchinleck Talbot creates 103% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 13 away

creates per match

Irvine Meadow
1.33
Auchinleck Talbot
2.92

allows per match

Irvine Meadow
2.00
Auchinleck Talbot
1.08

finishing

Irvine Meadow+0.00on par
Auchinleck Talbot+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Irvine Meadow ↓

Auchinleck Talbot →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–28%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Irvine Meadow or draw
36%
Irvine Meadow or Auchinleck Talbot
82%
Draw or Auchinleck Talbot
83%

Winning margin

Irvine Meadow wins by 2+
7%
Auchinleck Talbot wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Irvine Meadow 1+ goals
70%
Irvine Meadow 2+ goals
34%
Irvine Meadow 3+ goals
12%
Auchinleck Talbot 1+ goals
91%
Auchinleck Talbot 2+ goals
70%
Auchinleck Talbot 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Irvine Meadow (draw refunded)
21%
Auchinleck Talbot (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Irvine Meadow at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Auchinleck Talbot away — creates 2.92, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Irvine Meadow attack 1.33 + Auchinleck Talbot defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.21

Auchinleck Talbot attack 2.92 + Irvine Meadow defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Irvine Meadow scores more
17%
level
18%
Auchinleck Talbot scores more
64%

Auchinleck Talbot at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Auchinleck Talbot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Irvine Meadow 1–3 Auchinleck Talbot

Auchinleck Talbot beat Irvine Meadow 3-1 in FA Cup on September 18, 2021.

The match was played at Meadow Park in Irvine.