Irtysh 1–0 Khan Tengri: Result & Stats | Cup

Irtysh

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Khan Tengri

A. Popov 84'

3/11/2024

Cup · Qualifying Round - 1BIIK Futbol'noye Pole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Irtysh30%

×Draw27%

Khan Tengri43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IrtyshExpected goals in this matchKhan Tengri

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.38

Irtysh

1.10

Khan Tengri

1.38

Khan Tengri creates 25% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

1.20

creates per match

1.75

1.00

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Irtysh

1.20

Khan Tengri

1.75

allows per match

Irtysh

1.00

Khan Tengri

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Irtysh+0.00on par

Khan Tengri+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Irtysh ↓

Khan Tengri →

0–08%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Irtysh or draw

57%

Irtysh or Khan Tengri

73%

Draw or Khan Tengri

70%

Winning margin

Irtysh wins by 2+

12%

Khan Tengri wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Irtysh 1+ goals

67%

Irtysh 2+ goals

30%

Irtysh 3+ goals

10%

Khan Tengri 1+ goals

75%

Khan Tengri 2+ goals

40%

Khan Tengri 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Irtysh (draw refunded)

41%

Khan Tengri (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Irtysh at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Khan Tengri away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Irtysh attack 1.20 + Khan Tengri defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Khan Tengri attack 1.75 + Irtysh defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Irtysh scores more

30%

level

27%

Khan Tengri scores more

43%

Khan Tengri at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Khan Tengri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

T. Baizhanov

46'

Gaziev← Gaziev

59'

Z. Kozhamberdy← D. Kalybayev

63'

I. Kulzhanov← I. Kulzhanov

64'

A. Erzhanov← A. Erzhanov

84'

A. Popov

87'

R. Esimov← N. Borovsky

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff