Irtysh 0–0 FK Tobol Kostanay: Result & Stats

Irtysh

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

FK Tobol Kostanay

8/17/2019

Premier League · Round 23Ortalıq Stadion (Pavlodar)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Irtysh39%

×Draw28%

FK Tobol Kostanay33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IrtyshExpected goals in this matchFK Tobol Kostanay

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.09

Irtysh

1.21

FK Tobol Kostanay

1.09

Irtysh creates 11% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 31 away

1.20

creates per match

1.19

1.00

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Irtysh

1.20

FK Tobol Kostanay

1.19

allows per match

Irtysh

1.00

FK Tobol Kostanay

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Irtysh+0.00on par

FK Tobol Kostanay+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Irtysh ↓

FK Tobol Kostanay →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Irtysh or draw

67%

Irtysh or FK Tobol Kostanay

72%

Draw or FK Tobol Kostanay

61%

Winning margin

Irtysh wins by 2+

17%

FK Tobol Kostanay wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Irtysh 1+ goals

70%

Irtysh 2+ goals

34%

Irtysh 3+ goals

12%

FK Tobol Kostanay 1+ goals

66%

FK Tobol Kostanay 2+ goals

30%

FK Tobol Kostanay 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Irtysh (draw refunded)

54%

FK Tobol Kostanay (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Irtysh at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

FK Tobol Kostanay away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.23 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Irtysh attack 1.20 + FK Tobol Kostanay defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.21

FK Tobol Kostanay attack 1.19 + Irtysh defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Irtysh scores more

39%

level

28%

FK Tobol Kostanay scores more

33%

Irtysh at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Irtysh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Irtysh

FK

Manager: M. Milanović

Irtysh substitutes

KenesovPasechenkoPopovSmatovAslanSagnayevTursynbayMuldinovVitas

Manager: N. Zhumaskaliev

FK Tobol Kostanay substitutes

NurgalievSherstovZhukovSemchenkovKassaïNarzikulovAsrankulovBusurmanovZharynbetov

Premier League: Irtysh 0–0 FK Tobol Kostanay

Irtysh and FK Tobol Kostanay drew 0-0 in Premier League on August 17, 2019.

The match was played at Ortalıq Stadion (Pavlodar).

Irtysh vs FK Tobol Kostanay — Premier League 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Premier League: Irtysh 0–0 FK Tobol Kostanay