Irtysh Omsk 3–1 Spartak Tuymazy: Result & Stats

Irtysh Omsk

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Spartak Tuymazy

I. Donskov 70', 27', 17'

M. Smirnov 50' (OG)

9/14/2021

Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 9Krytyj futbolnyj Manesh MU SK Krasnaya zvezda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Irtysh Omsk60%

×Draw20%

Spartak Tuymazy20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Irtysh OmskExpected goals in this matchSpartak Tuymazy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.16

1.15

Irtysh Omsk

2.16

Spartak Tuymazy

1.15

Irtysh Omsk creates 88% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 14 away

1.61

creates per match

1.36

0.93

allows per match

2.71

creates per match

Irtysh Omsk

1.61

Spartak Tuymazy

1.36

allows per match

Irtysh Omsk

0.93

Spartak Tuymazy

2.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Irtysh Omsk+0.00on par

Spartak Tuymazy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Irtysh Omsk ↓

Spartak Tuymazy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Irtysh Omsk or draw

80%

Irtysh Omsk or Spartak Tuymazy

80%

Draw or Spartak Tuymazy

40%

Winning margin

Irtysh Omsk wins by 2+

37%

Spartak Tuymazy wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Irtysh Omsk 1+ goals

88%

Irtysh Omsk 2+ goals

63%

Irtysh Omsk 3+ goals

36%

Spartak Tuymazy 1+ goals

68%

Spartak Tuymazy 2+ goals

32%

Spartak Tuymazy 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Irtysh Omsk (draw refunded)

75%

Spartak Tuymazy (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Irtysh Omsk at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.93 · 28 matches

Spartak Tuymazy away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Irtysh Omsk attack 1.61 + Spartak Tuymazy defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.16

Spartak Tuymazy attack 1.36 + Irtysh Omsk defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Irtysh Omsk scores more

60%

level

20%

Spartak Tuymazy scores more

20%

Irtysh Omsk at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Irtysh Omsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

17'

27'

38'

45'

47'

50'

M. SmirnovOwn goal

51'

N. Zhustjev← S. Shanbiev

52'

K. Makeev

67'

I. Buryukin← K. Makeev

69'

E. Boytsov← A. Markosyan

69'

D. Garifullin← I. Badrtdinov

70'

I. Donskov

72'

I. Buryukin

76'

B. Khaernasov← V. Zhuravlev

76'

A. Dmitryuk← N. Belousov

84'

V. Pavlyuchenko

84'

A. Shleermakher← O. Tarabanov

84'

O. Trofimov← V. Pavlyuchenko

90+4'

A. Shleermakher

Irtysh

Spartak

▼

▼

▼

▼

🥅

▼

▼

⚽3

▼

▼

Manager: O. Gorshkov

51'▲N. Zhustjev←▼S. Shanbiev

67'▲I. Buryukin←▼K. Makeev

69'▲E. Boytsov←▼A. Markosyan

84'▲A. Shleermakher←▼O. Tarabanov

84'▲O. Trofimov←▼V. Pavlyuchenko

Irtysh Omsk substitutes

ZhustjevBuryukinBoytsovShleermakherTrofimov

Manager: N. Khabibullin

69'▲D. Garifullin←▼I. Badrtdinov

76'▲B. Khaernasov←▼V. Zhuravlev

76'▲A. Dmitryuk←▼N. Belousov

Spartak Tuymazy substitutes

GarifullinKhaernasovDmitryuk

Match Recap: Irtysh Omsk vs Spartak Tuymazy

Irtysh Omsk beat Spartak Tuymazy 3-1 in Second League - Group 4 on September 14, 2021.

Goals: I. Donskov (17', 27', 70'), M. Smirnov (50' o.g.).

The match was played at Krytyj futbolnyj Manesh MU SK Krasnaya zvezda in Omsk.

Irtysh Omsk vs Spartak Tuymazy — Second League - Group 4 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Irtysh Omsk vs Spartak Tuymazy