Irtysh Omsk 1–3 Novosibirsk: Result & Stats

Irtysh Omsk

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Novosibirsk

A. Yangaev 57'

D. Pokotylo 43', 8', 3'

4/4/2026

Second League A - Fall Season Gold · Spring Season Gold - 6Red Star Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Irtysh Omsk39%

×Draw28%

Novosibirsk33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Irtysh OmskExpected goals in this matchNovosibirsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.09

Irtysh Omsk

1.20

Novosibirsk

1.09

Irtysh Omsk creates 10% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 28 away

0.78

creates per match

0.96

1.22

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Irtysh Omsk

0.78

Novosibirsk

0.96

allows per match

Irtysh Omsk

1.22

Novosibirsk

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Irtysh Omsk+0.00on par

Novosibirsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Irtysh Omsk ↓

Novosibirsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Irtysh Omsk or draw

67%

Irtysh Omsk or Novosibirsk

72%

Draw or Novosibirsk

61%

Winning margin

Irtysh Omsk wins by 2+

16%

Novosibirsk wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Irtysh Omsk 1+ goals

70%

Irtysh Omsk 2+ goals

34%

Irtysh Omsk 3+ goals

12%

Novosibirsk 1+ goals

66%

Novosibirsk 2+ goals

30%

Novosibirsk 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Irtysh Omsk (draw refunded)

54%

Novosibirsk (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Irtysh Omsk at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

Novosibirsk away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.61 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Irtysh Omsk attack 0.78 + Novosibirsk defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.20

Novosibirsk attack 0.96 + Irtysh Omsk defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Irtysh Omsk scores more

39%

level

28%

Novosibirsk scores more

33%

Irtysh Omsk at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Irtysh Omsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

3'

8'

35'

43'

46'

A. Solovyov← I. Krylov

46'

N. Dorofeev← A. Maleev

49'

G. Zotov

57'

A. Yangaev

59'

A. Yangaev

61'

M. Zhustyev← K. Saraev

61'

R. Yanushkovskiy← Y. Bavin

64'

A. Krotov← G. Zotov

64'

D. Nikitin← D. Yakovlev

73'

A. Nosov← D. Kvekveskiri

73'

A. Kobyalko← N. Matskharashvili

76'

D. Nikitin

79'

A. Balkizov← D. Pokotylo

86'

M. Sentyurin← A. Geryugov

Irtysh

Novosibirsk

35

2

3

4

31

▼

Zotov

49

Karaev

11

▼

Kvekveski

8

▼

Matskhara

21

Makurin

10

▼

Yakovlev

7

⚽3

▼

16

11

44

6

▼

Saraev

19

Ustinov

18

▼

Krylov

27

▼

Bavin

81

⚽

Yangaev

8

▼

Maleev

7

▼

Geryugov

9

Bilalov

46'▲A. Solovyov←▼I. Krylov

46'▲N. Dorofeev←▼A. Maleev

61'▲M. Zhustyev←▼K. Saraev

61'▲R. Yanushkovskiy←▼Y. Bavin

86'▲M. Sentyurin←▼A. Geryugov

Irtysh Omsk substitutes

35Medvedev15Zhustyev23Zhustjev25Solovyov10Yanushkovskiy20Sentyurin30Razdymakha24Shokhin89Dorofeev17Shleermakher97Tarasov60Poletaev

Manager: Viktor Trenev

64'▲A. Krotov←▼G. Zotov

64'▲D. Nikitin←▼D. Yakovlev

73'▲A. Nosov←▼D. Kvekveskiri

73'▲A. Kobyalko←▼N. Matskharashvili

79'▲A. Balkizov←▼D. Pokotylo

Novosibirsk substitutes

13Kosarevskiy5Maksimenkov19Zapalatskiy9Nosov23Krotov54Shmakov39Kobyalko40Nikitin80Balkizov