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Irtysh Omsk vs Metallurg Lipetsk — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Irtysh Omsk
Irtysh Omsk
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Metallurg Lipetsk
Metallurg Lipetsk
9/13/2024Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 9Stadion Avangard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Irtysh Omsk38%
×Draw27%
Metallurg Lipetsk35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Irtysh Omsk
1.25
Metallurg Lipetsk
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 18 away

creates per match

Irtysh Omsk
1.00
Metallurg Lipetsk
1.17

allows per match

Irtysh Omsk
1.19
Metallurg Lipetsk
1.50

finishing

Irtysh Omsk+0.00on par
Metallurg Lipetsk+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Irtysh Omsk ↓

Metallurg Lipetsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Irtysh Omsk or draw
65%
Irtysh Omsk or Metallurg Lipetsk
73%
Draw or Metallurg Lipetsk
62%

Winning margin

Irtysh Omsk wins by 2+
17%
Metallurg Lipetsk wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Irtysh Omsk 1+ goals
71%
Irtysh Omsk 2+ goals
36%
Irtysh Omsk 3+ goals
13%
Metallurg Lipetsk 1+ goals
69%
Metallurg Lipetsk 2+ goals
33%
Metallurg Lipetsk 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Irtysh Omsk (draw refunded)
52%
Metallurg Lipetsk (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Irtysh Omsk at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

Metallurg Lipetsk away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Irtysh Omsk attack 1.00 + Metallurg Lipetsk defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Metallurg Lipetsk attack 1.17 + Irtysh Omsk defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Irtysh Omsk scores more
38%
level
27%
Metallurg Lipetsk scores more
35%

Irtysh Omsk at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Irtysh Omsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League A - Fall Season Silver: Irtysh Omsk 1–1 Metallurg Lipetsk

Irtysh Omsk and Metallurg Lipetsk drew 1-1 in Second League A - Fall Season Silver on September 13, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Avangard in Domodedovo.