Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Irtysh Omsk vs Khimik Dzerzhinsk — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Irtysh Omsk
Irtysh Omsk
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
8/31/2024Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 7Stadion Avangard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Irtysh Omsk44%
×Draw25%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Irtysh Omsk
1.50
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
1.21

Irtysh Omsk creates 24% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 9 away

creates per match

Irtysh Omsk
1.00
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
1.22

allows per match

Irtysh Omsk
1.19
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
2.00

finishing

Irtysh Omsk+0.00on par
Khimik Dzerzhinsk+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Irtysh Omsk ↓

Khimik Dzerzhinsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Irtysh Omsk or draw
69%
Irtysh Omsk or Khimik Dzerzhinsk
75%
Draw or Khimik Dzerzhinsk
56%

Winning margin

Irtysh Omsk wins by 2+
22%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Irtysh Omsk 1+ goals
78%
Irtysh Omsk 2+ goals
44%
Irtysh Omsk 3+ goals
19%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk 1+ goals
70%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk 2+ goals
34%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Irtysh Omsk (draw refunded)
59%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Irtysh Omsk at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

Khimik Dzerzhinsk away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Irtysh Omsk attack 1.00 + Khimik Dzerzhinsk defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Khimik Dzerzhinsk attack 1.22 + Irtysh Omsk defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Irtysh Omsk scores more
44%
level
25%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk scores more
31%

Irtysh Omsk at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Irtysh Omsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League A - Fall Season Silver: Irtysh Omsk 2–1 Khimik Dzerzhinsk

Irtysh Omsk beat Khimik Dzerzhinsk 2-1 in Second League A - Fall Season Silver on August 31, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Avangard in Domodedovo.