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Irtysh Omsk vs Avangard Kursk — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Irtysh Omsk
Irtysh Omsk
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Avangard Kursk
Avangard Kursk
10/4/2025Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 12Red Star Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Irtysh Omsk33%
×Draw30%
Avangard Kursk36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Irtysh Omsk
1.00
Avangard Kursk
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

creates per match

Irtysh Omsk
1.00
Avangard Kursk
0.94

allows per match

Irtysh Omsk
1.19
Avangard Kursk
1.00

finishing

Irtysh Omsk+0.00on par
Avangard Kursk+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Irtysh Omsk ↓

Avangard Kursk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Irtysh Omsk or draw
64%
Irtysh Omsk or Avangard Kursk
70%
Draw or Avangard Kursk
67%

Winning margin

Irtysh Omsk wins by 2+
12%
Avangard Kursk wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Irtysh Omsk 1+ goals
63%
Irtysh Omsk 2+ goals
26%
Irtysh Omsk 3+ goals
8%
Avangard Kursk 1+ goals
65%
Avangard Kursk 2+ goals
29%
Avangard Kursk 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Irtysh Omsk (draw refunded)
48%
Avangard Kursk (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Irtysh Omsk at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

Avangard Kursk away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Irtysh Omsk attack 1.00 + Avangard Kursk defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Avangard Kursk attack 0.94 + Irtysh Omsk defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Irtysh Omsk scores more
33%
level
30%
Avangard Kursk scores more
36%

Avangard Kursk at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Avangard Kursk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Irtysh Omsk vs Avangard Kursk

Irtysh Omsk and Avangard Kursk drew 0-0 in Second League A - Fall Season Silver on October 4, 2025.

The match was played at Red Star Stadium in Omsk.