Irtysh Omsk 1–0 Amkar: Result & Stats

Irtysh Omsk

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Amkar

A. Shleermakher 90+8' (pen)

8/13/2022

Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 4Krytyj futbolnyj Manesh MU SK Krasnaya zvezda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Irtysh Omsk30%

×Draw24%

Amkar46%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Irtysh OmskExpected goals in this matchAmkar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.70

Irtysh Omsk

1.33

Amkar

1.70

Amkar creates 28% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 16 away

1.67

creates per match

2.06

1.33

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Irtysh Omsk

1.67

Amkar

2.06

allows per match

Irtysh Omsk

1.33

Amkar

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Irtysh Omsk+0.00on par

Amkar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Irtysh Omsk ↓

Amkar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Irtysh Omsk or draw

54%

Irtysh Omsk or Amkar

76%

Draw or Amkar

70%

Winning margin

Irtysh Omsk wins by 2+

13%

Amkar wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Irtysh Omsk 1+ goals

74%

Irtysh Omsk 2+ goals

38%

Irtysh Omsk 3+ goals

15%

Amkar 1+ goals

82%

Amkar 2+ goals

51%

Amkar 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Irtysh Omsk (draw refunded)

39%

Amkar (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Irtysh Omsk at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Amkar away — creates 2.06, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Irtysh Omsk attack 1.67 + Amkar defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Amkar attack 2.06 + Irtysh Omsk defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Irtysh Omsk scores more

30%

level

24%

Amkar scores more

46%

Amkar at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Amkar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

39'

41'

45'

46'

V. Karev← A. Boldyrev

46'

E. Tyukalov← I. Zakharov

54'

I. Markelov

54'

I. Markelov

57'

K. Morozov← A. Podbeltsev

60'

A. Shleermakher← S. Podoksenov

66'

K. Kochetov← R. Simonov

71'

A. Markosyan

71'

V. Demjanov← I. Buryukin

71'

O. Trofimov← N. Zhustjev

77'

D. Kaykov← V. Pjanchenko

86'

D. Zuev

90+5'

D. Kaykov

90+8'

A. ShleermakherPenalty

Irtysh

Amkar

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: V. Petrakov

60'▲A. Shleermakher←▼S. Podoksenov

71'▲V. Demjanov←▼I. Buryukin

71'▲O. Trofimov←▼N. Zhustjev

Irtysh Omsk substitutes

ShleermakherDemjanovTrofimov

Manager: R. Khuzin

46'▲V. Karev←▼A. Boldyrev

46'▲E. Tyukalov←▼I. Zakharov

57'▲K. Morozov←▼A. Podbeltsev

66'▲K. Kochetov←▼R. Simonov

77'▲D. Kaykov←▼V. Pjanchenko

Amkar substitutes

KarevTyukalovMorozovKochetovKaykov