Ironi Tiberias vs Maccabi Netanya — Ligat Ha'al 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 33+ matches
Ironi Tiberias41%
Maccabi Netanya34%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Ironi Tiberias creates 13% more chances
Season form · 33 home / 105 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over53
- Under47
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes56
- No44
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Ironi Tiberias ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Ironi Tiberias at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.30 · 33 matches
Maccabi Netanya away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.66 · 105 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Ironi Tiberias attack 1.30 + Maccabi Netanya defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.48
Maccabi Netanya attack 1.33 + Ironi Tiberias defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.31
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 41%?"
Ironi Tiberias at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 41% does not mean "Ironi Tiberias will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Beitar Jerusalem
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Hapoel Tel Aviv
Maccabi HaifaMaccabi NetanyaIroni Tiberias
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Hapoel Petah Tikva
Hapoel Haifa
Bnei Sakhnin
Hapoel Katamon
Ashdod
Maccabi Bnei RainaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Ironi Tiberias host Maccabi Netanya on Sunday, 10 May 2026 at 17:00. The match is part of the Ligat Ha'al 2019/2020 season.
Ligat Ha'al: Ironi Tiberias 4–3 Maccabi Netanya
Ironi Tiberias beat Maccabi Netanya 4-3 in Ligat Ha'al on May 10, 2026.
Goals: I. Ben Shabat (18' o.g.), B. Zaarura (21'), M. Levi (51'), Matheus Davo (66'), G. Hadida (67', 90', 90').
The match was played at Green Stadium in Nof HaGalil.