Ironi Tiberias vs Maccabi Haifa — Ligat Ha'al 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 33+ matches
Ironi Tiberias29%
Maccabi Haifa46%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Maccabi Haifa creates 33% more chances
Season form · 33 home / 113 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over53
- Under47
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes56
- No44
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Ironi Tiberias ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Ironi Tiberias at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.30 · 33 matches
Maccabi Haifa away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.10 · 113 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Ironi Tiberias attack 1.30 + Maccabi Haifa defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.20
Maccabi Haifa attack 1.88 + Ironi Tiberias defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.59
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 46%?"
Maccabi Haifa at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 46% does not mean "Maccabi Haifa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Beitar Jerusalem
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Hapoel Tel AvivMaccabi Haifa
Maccabi NetanyaIroni Tiberias
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Hapoel Petah Tikva
Hapoel Haifa
Bnei Sakhnin
Hapoel Katamon
Ashdod
Maccabi Bnei RainaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Ironi Tiberias host Maccabi Haifa on Saturday, 25 October 2025 at 16:30. The match is part of the Ligat Ha'al 2019/2020 season.
Ironi Tiberias 1 – 1 Maccabi Haifa
Ironi Tiberias and Maccabi Haifa drew 1-1 in Ligat Ha'al on October 25, 2025.
Goals: T. Stewart (21'), G. Hadida (90').
The match was played at Green Stadium in Nof HaGalil.