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Ironi Tiberias vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona — Liga Leumit 2019

Ironi Tiberias
Ironi Tiberias
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
3/12/2024Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 27Afula Illit Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Ironi Tiberias35%
×Draw28%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ironi Tiberias
1.13
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 18 away

creates per match

Ironi Tiberias
1.58
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.50

allows per match

Ironi Tiberias
0.82
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
0.67

finishing

Ironi Tiberias+0.00on par
Ironi Kiryat Shmona+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ironi Tiberias ↓

Ironi Kiryat Shmona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ironi Tiberias or draw
63%
Ironi Tiberias or Ironi Kiryat Shmona
72%
Draw or Ironi Kiryat Shmona
65%

Winning margin

Ironi Tiberias wins by 2+
14%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Ironi Tiberias 1+ goals
68%
Ironi Tiberias 2+ goals
31%
Ironi Tiberias 3+ goals
11%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1+ goals
69%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona 2+ goals
32%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ironi Tiberias (draw refunded)
49%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ironi Tiberias at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.82 · 38 matches

Ironi Kiryat Shmona away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.67 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ironi Tiberias attack 1.58 + Ironi Kiryat Shmona defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.13

Ironi Kiryat Shmona attack 1.50 + Ironi Tiberias defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Ironi Tiberias scores more
35%
level
28%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona scores more
37%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ironi Kiryat Shmona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ironi Tiberias vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona

Ironi Tiberias beat Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1-0 in Liga Leumit on March 12, 2024.

The match was played at Afula Illit Stadium in Afula.