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Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Ironi Tiberias — Ligat Ha'al 2019

Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Ironi Tiberias
Ironi Tiberias
4/19/2025Ligat Ha'alLigat Ha'al · Relegation Round - 4Netanya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Ironi Kiryat Shmona46%
×Draw26%
Ironi Tiberias28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.49
Ironi Tiberias
1.10

Ironi Kiryat Shmona creates 35% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 33 away

creates per match

Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.22
Ironi Tiberias
0.91

allows per match

Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.29
Ironi Tiberias
1.76

finishing

Ironi Kiryat Shmona+0.00on par
Ironi Tiberias+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ironi Kiryat Shmona ↓

Ironi Tiberias →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Ironi Kiryat Shmona or draw
72%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona or Ironi Tiberias
74%
Draw or Ironi Tiberias
54%

Winning margin

Ironi Kiryat Shmona wins by 2+
23%
Ironi Tiberias wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1+ goals
77%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona 2+ goals
44%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona 3+ goals
19%
Ironi Tiberias 1+ goals
67%
Ironi Tiberias 2+ goals
30%
Ironi Tiberias 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ironi Kiryat Shmona (draw refunded)
62%
Ironi Tiberias (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ironi Kiryat Shmona at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.29 · 101 matches

Ironi Tiberias away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.76 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ironi Kiryat Shmona attack 1.22 + Ironi Tiberias defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.49

Ironi Tiberias attack 0.91 + Ironi Kiryat Shmona defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ironi Kiryat Shmona scores more
46%
level
26%
Ironi Tiberias scores more
28%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ironi Kiryat Shmona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligat Ha'al: Ironi Kiryat Shmona 0–2 Ironi Tiberias

Ironi Tiberias beat Ironi Kiryat Shmona 2-0 in Ligat Ha'al on April 19, 2025.

The match was played at Netanya Stadium in Netanya.