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Ironi Tiberias vs Hapoel Kaukab — State Cup 2019

Ironi Tiberias
Ironi Tiberias
FT
4 – 1
Hapoel Kaukab
Hapoel Kaukab
11/20/2020State CupState Cup · 1st RoundNew Tiberias Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ironi Tiberias28%
×Draw22%
Hapoel Kaukab50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ironi Tiberias
1.38
Hapoel Kaukab
1.93

Hapoel Kaukab creates 40% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

creates per match

Ironi Tiberias
1.43
Hapoel Kaukab
2.00

allows per match

Ironi Tiberias
1.86
Hapoel Kaukab
1.33

finishing

Ironi Tiberias+0.00on par
Hapoel Kaukab+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ironi Tiberias ↓

Hapoel Kaukab →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Ironi Tiberias or draw
50%
Ironi Tiberias or Hapoel Kaukab
78%
Draw or Hapoel Kaukab
72%

Winning margin

Ironi Tiberias wins by 2+
12%
Hapoel Kaukab wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Ironi Tiberias 1+ goals
75%
Ironi Tiberias 2+ goals
40%
Ironi Tiberias 3+ goals
16%
Hapoel Kaukab 1+ goals
85%
Hapoel Kaukab 2+ goals
57%
Hapoel Kaukab 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Ironi Tiberias (draw refunded)
35%
Hapoel Kaukab (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ironi Tiberias at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Hapoel Kaukab away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ironi Tiberias attack 1.43 + Hapoel Kaukab defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.38

Hapoel Kaukab attack 2.00 + Ironi Tiberias defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ironi Tiberias scores more
28%
level
22%
Hapoel Kaukab scores more
50%

Hapoel Kaukab at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Hapoel Kaukab will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

State Cup: Ironi Tiberias 4–1 Hapoel Kaukab

Ironi Tiberias beat Hapoel Kaukab 4-1 in State Cup on November 20, 2020.

The match was played at New Tiberias Municipal Stadium in Tiberias.