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Ironi Tiberias vs Ashdod — Ligat Ha'al 2019

Ironi Tiberias
Ironi Tiberias
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Ashdod
Ashdod
4/6/2025Ligat Ha'alLigat Ha'al · Relegation Round - 3Green Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Ironi Tiberias41%
×Draw26%
Ashdod33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ironi Tiberias
1.41
Ashdod
1.23

Ironi Tiberias creates 15% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 119 away

creates per match

Ironi Tiberias
1.30
Ashdod
1.17

allows per match

Ironi Tiberias
1.30
Ashdod
1.51

finishing

Ironi Tiberias+0.00on par
Ashdod+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ironi Tiberias ↓

Ashdod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ironi Tiberias or draw
67%
Ironi Tiberias or Ashdod
74%
Draw or Ashdod
59%

Winning margin

Ironi Tiberias wins by 2+
19%
Ashdod wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Ironi Tiberias 1+ goals
76%
Ironi Tiberias 2+ goals
41%
Ironi Tiberias 3+ goals
17%
Ashdod 1+ goals
71%
Ashdod 2+ goals
35%
Ashdod 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Ironi Tiberias (draw refunded)
56%
Ashdod (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ironi Tiberias at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.30 · 33 matches

Ashdod away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.51 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ironi Tiberias attack 1.30 + Ashdod defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.41

Ashdod attack 1.17 + Ironi Tiberias defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ironi Tiberias scores more
41%
level
26%
Ashdod scores more
33%

Ironi Tiberias at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ironi Tiberias will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ironi Tiberias vs Ashdod

Ashdod beat Ironi Tiberias 2-1 in Ligat Ha'al on April 6, 2025.

The match was played at Green Stadium in Nazareth Illit.