Ironi Nesher 2–1 Maccabi Umm Al Fahm

Ironi Nesher

2 – 1

Maccabi Umm Al Fahm

9/24/2019

State Cup · 3rd RoundNesher Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ironi Nesher45%

×Draw23%

Maccabi Umm Al Fahm32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ironi NesherExpected goals in this matchMaccabi Umm Al Fahm

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.50

Ironi Nesher

1.83

Maccabi Umm Al Fahm

1.50

Ironi Nesher creates 22% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

2.33

creates per match

1.67

1.33

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Ironi Nesher

2.33

Maccabi Umm Al Fahm

1.67

allows per match

Ironi Nesher

1.33

Maccabi Umm Al Fahm

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ironi Nesher+0.00on par

Maccabi Umm Al Fahm+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ironi Nesher ↓

Maccabi Umm Al Fahm →

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Ironi Nesher or draw

68%

Ironi Nesher or Maccabi Umm Al Fahm

77%

Draw or Maccabi Umm Al Fahm

55%

Winning margin

Ironi Nesher wins by 2+

25%

Maccabi Umm Al Fahm wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Ironi Nesher 1+ goals

84%

Ironi Nesher 2+ goals

54%

Ironi Nesher 3+ goals

28%

Maccabi Umm Al Fahm 1+ goals

78%

Maccabi Umm Al Fahm 2+ goals

44%

Maccabi Umm Al Fahm 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Ironi Nesher (draw refunded)

59%

Maccabi Umm Al Fahm (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ironi Nesher at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Maccabi Umm Al Fahm away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ironi Nesher attack 2.33 + Maccabi Umm Al Fahm defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.83

Maccabi Umm Al Fahm attack 1.67 + Ironi Nesher defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ironi Nesher scores more

45%

level

23%

Maccabi Umm Al Fahm scores more

32%

Ironi Nesher at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ironi Nesher will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff