Ironi Kiryat Shmona 0–0 Kafr Qasim: Result & Stats

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Kafr Qasim

3/8/2024

Liga Leumit · Round 25Netanya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Ironi Kiryat Shmona56%

×Draw25%

Kafr Qasim19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ironi Kiryat ShmonaExpected goals in this matchKafr Qasim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.82

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

1.61

Kafr Qasim

0.82

Ironi Kiryat Shmona creates 96% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 128 away

2.05

creates per match

1.06

0.58

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

2.05

Kafr Qasim

1.06

allows per match

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

0.58

Kafr Qasim

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ironi Kiryat Shmona+0.00on par

Kafr Qasim+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ironi Kiryat Shmona ↓

Kafr Qasim →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Ironi Kiryat Shmona or draw

81%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona or Kafr Qasim

75%

Draw or Kafr Qasim

44%

Winning margin

Ironi Kiryat Shmona wins by 2+

30%

Kafr Qasim wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1+ goals

80%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona 2+ goals

48%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona 3+ goals

22%

Kafr Qasim 1+ goals

56%

Kafr Qasim 2+ goals

20%

Kafr Qasim 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Ironi Kiryat Shmona (draw refunded)

75%

Kafr Qasim (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ironi Kiryat Shmona at home — creates 2.05, concedes 0.58 · 19 matches

Kafr Qasim away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.17 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ironi Kiryat Shmona attack 2.05 + Kafr Qasim defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.61

Kafr Qasim attack 1.06 + Ironi Kiryat Shmona defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Ironi Kiryat Shmona scores more

56%

level

25%

Kafr Qasim scores more

19%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Ironi Kiryat Shmona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff