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Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Ironi Tiberias — Liga Leumit 2019

Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Ironi Tiberias
Ironi Tiberias
12/12/2023Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 12Netanya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Ironi Kiryat Shmona48%
×Draw25%
Ironi Tiberias27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.59
Ironi Tiberias
1.11

Ironi Kiryat Shmona creates 43% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 36 away

creates per match

Ironi Kiryat Shmona
2.05
Ironi Tiberias
1.64

allows per match

Ironi Kiryat Shmona
0.58
Ironi Tiberias
1.14

finishing

Ironi Kiryat Shmona+0.00on par
Ironi Tiberias+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ironi Kiryat Shmona ↓

Ironi Tiberias →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Ironi Kiryat Shmona or draw
73%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona or Ironi Tiberias
75%
Draw or Ironi Tiberias
52%

Winning margin

Ironi Kiryat Shmona wins by 2+
25%
Ironi Tiberias wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1+ goals
80%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona 2+ goals
47%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona 3+ goals
21%
Ironi Tiberias 1+ goals
67%
Ironi Tiberias 2+ goals
30%
Ironi Tiberias 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ironi Kiryat Shmona (draw refunded)
65%
Ironi Tiberias (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ironi Kiryat Shmona at home — creates 2.05, concedes 0.58 · 19 matches

Ironi Tiberias away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.14 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ironi Kiryat Shmona attack 2.05 + Ironi Tiberias defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.59

Ironi Tiberias attack 1.64 + Ironi Kiryat Shmona defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ironi Kiryat Shmona scores more
48%
level
25%
Ironi Tiberias scores more
27%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ironi Kiryat Shmona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Ironi Tiberias

Ironi Tiberias beat Ironi Kiryat Shmona 2-1 in Liga Leumit on December 12, 2023.

The match was played at Netanya Stadium in Netanya.