Ironi Kiryat Shmona 0–1 Bnei Sakhnin

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Bnei Sakhnin

A. Ramalingom 72'

5/3/2025

Ligat Ha'al · Relegation Round - 6Netanya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Ironi Kiryat Shmona41%

×Draw27%

Bnei Sakhnin31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ironi Kiryat ShmonaExpected goals in this matchBnei Sakhnin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.10

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

1.31

Bnei Sakhnin

1.10

Ironi Kiryat Shmona creates 19% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 102 away

1.26

creates per match

0.91

1.30

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

1.26

Bnei Sakhnin

0.91

allows per match

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

1.30

Bnei Sakhnin

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ironi Kiryat Shmona+0.00on par

Bnei Sakhnin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ironi Kiryat Shmona ↓

Bnei Sakhnin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Ironi Kiryat Shmona or draw

69%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona or Bnei Sakhnin

73%

Draw or Bnei Sakhnin

59%

Winning margin

Ironi Kiryat Shmona wins by 2+

19%

Bnei Sakhnin wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1+ goals

73%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona 2+ goals

38%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona 3+ goals

14%

Bnei Sakhnin 1+ goals

67%

Bnei Sakhnin 2+ goals

30%

Bnei Sakhnin 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Ironi Kiryat Shmona (draw refunded)

57%

Bnei Sakhnin (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ironi Kiryat Shmona at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.30 · 87 matches

Bnei Sakhnin away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.37 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ironi Kiryat Shmona attack 1.26 + Bnei Sakhnin defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.31

Bnei Sakhnin attack 0.91 + Ironi Kiryat Shmona defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ironi Kiryat Shmona scores more

41%

level

27%

Bnei Sakhnin scores more

31%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ironi Kiryat Shmona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

A. Ramalingom

Bnei Sakhnin · F

7.9

Match Events

46'

M. Anim Cudjoe← N. Belay

56'

Harel Goldenberg

60'

R. Zikri← A. Wodaje

61'

C. Bella← Y. Mordechai

68'

A. Taha← L. Nangis

70'

Y. Malka← L. Cohen

72'

A. Ramalingom↳ J. Fuchs

78'

D. Twito← N. Cohen

78'

M. Abu Rumi← N. Niddam

90+6'

Abdelhadi Yassin

90+6'

I. Elmkies← A. Salman

90+6'

B. Khuri← A. Ramalingom

90+2'

O. Abuhav← B. Osei

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IroniBnei

Overview

51%Possession49%

6Total Shots6

4Corners5

16Fouls11

Shots

6Total Shots6

3On Target2

3Off Target3

0Blocked1

2Inside Box1

4Outside Box5

Passing

51%Possession49%

374Total Passes361

301Accurate Passes284

80%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls11

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides3